The 2026 Oscar Race: An Early Analysis of the Post-Festival Landscape

Note

This content was entirely created using Google Gemini Deep Research. It was initially intended as research so that I (Dan Gardner: Founder) could put together a preview of the upcoming Oscar season movies. But, after reading the output, there’s no way I could do better if I spent all week writing, which I don’t have time for.

If you’re interested in the subject, but you don’t care to read AI-generated content, I suggest scrolling down and just skimming over the table data below, which contains an abbreviated list of everything you might want to know.

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Introduction: The Shape of the Season

As the dust settles from the influential one-two punch of the Venice and Telluride Film Festivals, the speculative, “good on paper” phase of the 98th Academy Awards season has officially concluded. What was once a theoretical exercise in predicting potential contenders has now crystallized into a tangible race with defined frontrunners, formidable dark horses, and complex, performance-driven narratives. The early September landscape, while still subject to the whims of upcoming festivals in Toronto and New York and the impact of major unseen studio films, is now framed by three dominant, and at times conflicting, storylines that will shape the six-month marathon to Oscar night.

The first and most potent narrative is that of a festival coronation. Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet, which premiered at the 52nd Telluride Film Festival, was met with a wave of rapturous acclaim, immediately positioning it as the critical darling of the season and the de facto Best Picture frontrunner. This emotional, arthouse epic enters the race with the kind of passionate support that can be difficult to dislodge.

In direct contrast to the festival breakout is the resilient juggernaut. Ryan Coogler’s Sinners, a supernatural horror blockbuster released in April, has defied the conventional awards calendar, maintaining its position at the top of prediction lists through sustained cultural conversation and immense popular support. Its continued strength poses a fundamental question: can a genre film released in the spring replicate the path of a phenomenon like Everything Everywhere All At Once and go all the way?

Finally, the season is defined by a burgeoning performance-versus-picture dilemma. Powerhouse acting turns from Dwayne Johnson in the otherwise poorly-received The Smashing Machine and Jeremy Allen White in the mixed-reviewed Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere have created a complex awards calculus. These performances have generated formidable buzz independent of their films, forcing a conversation about whether a transcendent portrayal can overcome a mediocre vehicle. As the industry looks ahead, the central challenge for these early contenders will be to sustain their momentum and avoid the dreaded “festival mirage,” a phenomenon where early hype dissipates over the long campaign trail.

The Best Picture Arena: Establishing the Tiers of Contention

The race for the Academy’s top prize has already begun to stratify. A clear top tier of contenders has emerged, each representing a distinct and proven archetype for a modern Best Picture nominee. Behind them, a formidable group of studio priorities and auteur-driven projects are vying for position, while a handful of performance-carried films and genre efforts hope to break into the final lineup.

Tier 1: The Presumed Frontrunners

The three films that have established the most significant early momentum each appeal to a different, but equally powerful, segment of the modern Academy. They represent the emotional festival favorite, the innovative popular hit, and the lauded international masterpiece. The success of these distinct models in recent years suggests the final Best Picture lineup will be a composite of these archetypes, reflecting a voting body that is more diverse in its tastes than ever before.

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Hamnet (Focus Features)

Chloé Zhao’s follow-up to her Oscar-winning Nomadland arrived at Telluride with immense expectations and managed to exceed them. An adaptation of Maggie O’Farrell’s celebrated novel, the film is not a traditional biopic of William Shakespeare but an “expressionistic wonder” focused on the profound grief of his wife, Agnes, following the death of their son.11 The critical reception has been nothing short of ecstatic. AwardsWatch assigned it a rare “A” grade, calling it a “timeless tale of profound loss and boundless love,” while other reactions have labeled it “the real deal,” a “masterwork,” and “gut-wrenching” in its emotional intensity. With a pedigree that includes Zhao as director and Steven Spielberg and Sam Mendes as producers,

Hamnet possesses an impeccable awards profile. It enters the race as the clear critical favorite, following the path of recent festival-launched art-house contenders that have resonated deeply with the Academy. Its primary task will be to translate the rarefied emotional experience of a Telluride premiere to the broader industry guilds and voters over the coming months.

Sinners (Warner Bros.)

In a different stratosphere from the intimate artistry of Hamnet is Ryan Coogler’s ambitious genre spectacle. Released on April 18, 2025, Sinners became a critical and commercial phenomenon, grossing $366 million worldwide and remaining a dominant force in the awards conversation for nearly half a year. The film is described as a multi-genre supernatural thriller starring Michael B. Jordan in a dual role, weaving a vampire narrative into the rich history of the blues in the American Deep South. Pundits consistently place it at or near the top of their Best Picture predictions, drawing parallels to the unlikely awards trajectory of Everything Everywhere All At Once.

Sinners represents the potential for a new paradigm: a populist, innovative, and culturally significant film that rewrites the rules about when an Oscar contender can be released. Its greatest challenge remains the Academy’s historical, though waning, resistance to the horror genre. The film’s ultimate fate for the top prize is seen by many as being inextricably linked to its ability to secure major nominations beyond the technical categories, with a Best Actor nod for Jordan being the crucial bellwether.

Sentimental Value (NEON)

Emerging from the Cannes Film Festival with the prestigious Grand Prix, Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value immediately established itself as a major international force. The film, which reunites the director with star Renate Reinsve after their acclaimed collaboration on

The Worst Person in the World, was acquired by NEON, a distributor with a masterful track record of campaigning for international features, most notably the Best Picture-winning Parasite. In the wake of recent successes like Anatomy of a Fall and Drive My Car, a slot in the Best Picture lineup for a non-English language or internationally produced film has become all but guaranteed. Sentimental Value is perfectly positioned to claim that spot. With strong critical support and a savvy distributor behind it, the film is a formidable contender not just for Best Picture, but for a host of other categories, including Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, and a highly anticipated Best Actress campaign for Reinsve.

Tier 2: The Power Players and Studio Priorities

This tier is composed of films with immense institutional support, whether from a major studio or a top streamer. Their high visibility and the pedigree of the talent involved make them strong bets for a nomination, though questions remain about their ability to generate the passionate consensus required for a win.

Jay Kelly (Netflix)

As the primary awards vehicle for Netflix, Noah Baumbach’s latest film is being positioned for a major campaign, with one pundit noting it will be carried through the season “like a precious egg”. Starring George Clooney as an aging movie star and Adam Sandler as his manager, the film has the kind of prestige cast and director that voters notice. However, its reception has been notably divided. After earning a strong “A-” review at its Telluride premiere, suggesting it connected with the festival crowd, it was met with a scathing assessment at the Venice Film Festival, with The Guardian calling it a “dire Noah Baumbach effort”. This critical split suggests that  while Netflix’s formidable campaign machine may secure it a place in the final ten, Jay Kelly might struggle to build the universal passion needed to be a serious threat for the win, fitting the profile of a film that “gets in, and no one ever thinks about it again”.

Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)

The second and final chapter of the gargantuan movie musical adaptation, Wicked: For Good, enters the race as a default contender. The first installment was a significant awards player in the previous season, and the sequel is expected to be a commercial and cultural event. The film is anticipated to be a powerhouse in the craft categories and carries high hopes for its lead actresses, Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande, to repeat their nominations. A Best Picture nomination seems highly probable for a film of this scale and cultural footprint. Its ability to contend for the win, however, will depend entirely on its reception as a satisfying and emotionally resonant conclusion to the epic two-part story.

Bugonia (Focus Features)

The latest from the singular mind of Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia reunites the director with Emma Stone, the star of his recent Oscar-winning triumph, Poor Things. The film, a remake of the Korean sci-fi comedy Save the Green Planet!, premiered at Venice to a deeply polarized reception. On one hand, it was hailed as a “heady and gripping experience” and a timely political satire, initially boasting a 100% score on Rotten Tomatoes. On the other, many critics found it more alienating, cerebral, and less emotionally engaging than Lanthimos’s recent work, comparing it to his earlier, more confrontational films like Dogtooth and The Killing of a Sacred Deer.

Bugonia is the race’s ultimate wild card. Its auteur pedigree is undeniable, but its challenging and bizarre tone may prove too divisive for the broader Academy membership. It is a stronger contender in the screenplay and acting categories than it is for the top prize.

Tier 3: The Performance-Carried Hopefuls and Genre Contenders

This group of films is being kept in the Best Picture conversation almost entirely due to the strength of a single, universally praised performance. Their path to a nomination is narrow and depends on the actor’s campaign being powerful enough to lift the entire film with it.

Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (20th Century Studios)

This biopic, which focuses narrowly on the creation of Bruce Springsteen’s seminal 1982 album Nebraska, is the quintessential example of a performance transcending its film. Jeremy Allen White’s portrayal of Springsteen has been met with universal, rapturous praise, with reviews calling it an “astonishing,” “spectacular,” and “all-time acting showcase”. The film itself, however, has received a far more muted, C+ to B-level reception. While critics have praised director Scott Cooper’s focused approach, they have also criticized the film for relying on conventional biopic tropes and a weakly conceived fictional romantic subplot. White is a locked-in contender for Best Actor, and that nomination will keep the film in the awards conversation. However, its lukewarm critical consensus makes a Best Picture nomination an uphill battle.

The Smashing Machine (A24)

Presenting an even more extreme version of the Springsteen dilemma is Benny Safdie’s MMA biopic. The film’s Venice premiere was defined by the powerful meta-narrative surrounding its star, Dwayne Johnson. His dramatic transformation into fighter Mark Kerr was met with a reported 15-minute standing ovation and reviews that hailed his performance as a “revelation” and “extraordinary” in its raw vulnerability. The film itself, however, was largely dismissed by critics as a “middling,” “cautious,” and “toothless” sports drama, with some calling it little more than a “vanity project” for its star. The story of “The Rock becoming a serious actor” is a potent and easily marketable campaign angle, one that could propel Johnson to a nomination regardless of the film’s quality. This presents a unique challenge for distributor A24, which must decide how to campaign for a lead actor whose film is not considered a viable contender in any other major category. This focus on a compelling meta-narrative over the film’s actual reception could prove to be a powerful tool in a crowded acting race, but it makes a Best Picture nomination for The Smashing Machine a near impossibility.

Frankenstein (Netflix) & Weapons (NEON)

The Academy’s increasing willingness to recognize high-end genre filmmaking has opened the door for films like Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein and Zach Cregger’s Weapons to be considered potential surprise nominees. Both come from highly respected directors known for elevating their respective genres.

Weapons, in particular, is generating significant early buzz for a supporting performance from veteran actress Amy Madigan, which could help its overall profile. For either to crack the final lineup, they will need to be championed as works of significant artistry that transcend genre conventions, supported by strong critical reviews and excellence in the craft categories.

Tier 4: The Broader Field

Beyond the more clearly defined contenders, a host of other high-profile films remain in the conversation, many of which have yet to screen for critics. This group includes Paul Thomas Anderson’s secretive new film One Battle After Another, starring Leonardo DiCaprio (Warner Bros.); James Cameron’s highly anticipated blockbuster sequel Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century Studios); Jafar Panahi’s politically charged It Was Just an Accident (NEON); and Paul Greengrass’s drama The Lost Bus (Apple Original Films). The presence of these and other films signifies the considerable depth of the potential field and underscores how much of the race is still to be run.

The Best Actor Gauntlet: A Battle of Biopics, Veterans, and Breakouts

The 2026 race for Best Actor is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent memory, defined by a clash between two powerful awards archetypes: the transformative biopic performance and the nuanced character work in an auteur-driven film. The Academy has historically favored actors who disappear into real-life figures, as the physical mimicry provides a clear and tangible metric for “great acting”. This gives the biopic contenders a built-in advantage. However, the modern Academy has also shown a strong preference for rewarding performances within films of significant artistic merit. The outcome of this year’s race may hinge on which of these narratives proves more compelling to voters.

The Biopic Showdown: Transformation and Mimicry

Three of the most talked-about contenders are playing iconic real-life figures, each with a distinct campaign narrative.

Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere)

Fresh off his Emmy-winning success on television’s The Bear, Jeremy Allen White has made a spectacular leap to the big screen. His portrayal of Bruce Springsteen has been singled out for near-universal acclaim, with critics calling it an “all-time acting showcase” in which he “crushes his turn as Springsteen”. Reports that White performed the vocals live on set have only added to the praise for the performance’s authenticity. His campaign narrative is that of a white-hot star at the peak of his powers, delivering a definitive and transformative performance that elevates his entire film.

Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine)

The campaign for Dwayne Johnson is built almost entirely on the powerful meta-narrative of a global superstar seeking artistic legitimacy. His physical and emotional transformation into MMA fighter Mark Kerr has been praised for its “immense pathos, intensity and depth,” with critics noting it is the most “raw and vulnerable” he has ever been on screen. The emotional standing ovation at the Venice premiere provides a potent centerpiece for a campaign focused on this career-redefining turn. His primary challenge will be to convince voters that the performance is a genuine artistic achievement and not merely a well-executed stunt, especially given the film’s poor reviews.

Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme)

An awards-season regular, Timothée Chalamet is tackling his second consecutive biopic role after his nominated turn as Bob Dylan. He is considered a top-tier contender by default, given his track record, his collaboration with acclaimed director Josh Safdie, and the backing of awards powerhouse A24. In a classic sign of studio confidence, the film is forgoing the fall festival circuit for a strategic Christmas Day release. Chalamet’s narrative is that of a premier actor of his generation further solidifying his status with another challenging, high-profile role.

The Auteur Collaborators and Ensemble Leaders

This group of actors is contending for their work in films expected to be major players in the Best Picture race. Their path to a nomination is bolstered by the overall prestige of their projects.

George Clooney (Jay Kelly)

Playing an aging movie star in a film by writer-director Noah Baumbach provides George Clooney with a tailor-made role for a veteran nomination. As a beloved figure in the industry, he will be a central part of the awards conversation, though his chances for a win will likely depend on the film overcoming its divisive reviews to become a top-tier Best Picture contender.

Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)

In what is being described as a career-defining performance, Michael B. Jordan is a strong contender for his first-ever Oscar nomination for his challenging dual role in Sinners. His nomination is widely seen as the key test of the film’s strength as a Best Picture frontrunner; if he can break into this incredibly crowded field, it signals broad support for the film across the Academy’s branches.

Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)

Long respected as one of the industry’s finest character actors, Jesse Plemons has a major leading role in Yorgos Lanthimos’s latest film. His performance as a paranoid, conspiracy-obsessed kidnapper is a prime showcase for his unique and unsettling screen presence. Plemons is a very strong contender, particularly if Bugonia gains traction in the directing and screenplay races, which would validate the film’s overall artistic vision.

The Potential Spoilers: A Field of Legends

The sheer depth of this year’s Best Actor field is staggering, with a formidable group of Hollywood legends and past winners who could easily disrupt the race. Chief among them is the rumored return from retirement of three-time winner Daniel Day-Lewis in Anemone. Also looming large are Leonardo DiCaprio in Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another, Oscar Isaac in Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein, and Cannes Best Actor winner Wagner Moura for his role in the political thriller The Secret Agent. The presence of these titans makes this one of the most unpredictable and exciting Best Actor races in years.

The Best Actress Race: In Search of a Solid Five

In contrast to the crowded men’s field, the Best Actress race has been characterized by some pundits as “top-heavy” or even “weak” beyond a few early frontrunners. This perception, however, may be a premature assessment that overlooks the diversity of strong roles available. The current landscape features a clear festival frontrunner, a strong international contender, and several previous winners in high-profile projects. The perceived openness of the final two or three nomination slots creates a dynamic and unpredictable race where a performance backed by strong critical passion could easily gain momentum. This supposed “weakness” is less a reflection of a lack of quality and more a sign of an unsettled field, which often creates the most exciting awards contests.

The Critical Darlings: Festival Acclaim

Two performances have emerged from the festival circuit with overwhelming critical support, establishing themselves as the early leaders of the pack.

Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)

The undisputed breakout star of the fall festivals is Jessie Buckley. Her performance as Agnes Shakespeare in Hamnet has been met with some of the most effusive praise of the year, with critics describing her portrayal of a mother’s grief as “transcendent,” “utterly extraordinary,” and emotionally devastating. On the strength of these reviews, Buckley has immediately vaulted to the top of nearly every prediction list, becoming the presumed frontrunner not just for a nomination, but for the win.

Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value)

Following her international breakthrough in The Worst Person in the World, Renate Reinsve has returned with the same director, Joachim Trier, in a film that earned the Grand Prix at Cannes. This performance is positioned to occupy the prestigious international slot in the lineup, a space that has become a staple of the category in recent years. She is considered a top-tier contender, backed by strong critical bona fides and a distributor known for its savvy awards campaigns.

The Known Quantities: Previous Winners and Nominees

A formidable group of past Oscar winners and nominees are in the mix with major studio films, relying on their established reputations and the strength of their projects.

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good)

A previous nominee for Harriet, Cynthia Erivo is poised to return to the category for her role as Elphaba in the highly anticipated conclusion to the Wicked saga. If the film is as well-received as its predecessor, her nomination seems highly likely. However, some analysts argue that her chances, and those of her co-star Ariana Grande in the supporting category, are directly tied to the film being a top-tier Best Picture contender.

Emma Stone (Bugonia)

Fresh off her second Oscar win, Emma Stone reteams with director Yorgos Lanthimos for another audacious and challenging role. Her portrayal of a “dead-eyed corporate ice queen” who may or may not be an alien is another example of her fearless and transformative work. While the film itself may prove too divisive to contend for Best Picture, Stone’s performance is almost certain to be a major factor in the Best Actress race.

Julia Roberts (After the Hunt)

Hollywood legend Julia Roberts is in the conversation for a potential “welcome back” nomination for her leading role in director Luca Guadagnino’s new drama. Her path to a nomination will likely require the film to be a significant awards player across the board. Pundits have noted that in recent years, big-name stars in films that underperform with the Academy have often been left out of the final lineup, a hurdle Roberts will need to overcome.

The Outsiders and Alternates: Capitalizing on an Open Field

The unsettled nature of the race beyond the top contenders creates a significant opportunity for other acclaimed performances to break through. Amanda Seyfried earned an “A” grade review out of Venice for her role in The Testament of Ann Lee, a film currently seeking distribution. Two-time nominee Jennifer Lawrence stars in Lynne Ramsay’s Die, My Love, which received positive notices at Cannes. And perhaps the most intriguing dark horse is Rose Byrne, who won the Silver Bear for Best Leading Performance at the Berlin Film Festival for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. A win from a major international festival can be a powerful launching pad for a campaign, especially in a year where the later slots in the category are perceived as being up for grabs.

Conclusion: The Road Ahead

The conclusion of the Venice and Telluride film festivals has provided a clear, compelling, and complex shape to the 2026 Oscar race. The season now has its established archetypes: the emotionally resonant festival darling in Hamnet, the culturally significant blockbuster in Sinners, and the prestigious international contender in Sentimental Value. In the acting categories, the stage is set for a monumental clash in the Best Actor race, where transformative biopic performances will compete with nuanced character work from industry veterans. Meanwhile, the Best Actress category, led by a stunning breakout performance from Jessie Buckley, presents a dynamic and unsettled field where critical passion could pave the way for an unexpected nominee.

This post-festival landscape, however, represents the starting line, not the finish. The narratives that have taken hold will now be rigorously tested over the next six months. Several key milestones will continue to shape and reshape the race. The upcoming Toronto International Film Festival and its influential People’s Choice Award could further solidify Hamnet‘s frontrunner status or elevate a new challenger. The New York and AFI festivals will introduce still more contenders into the mix. The theatrical releases of major unseen films—including Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, and Avatar: Fire and Ash—have the potential to completely upend the current hierarchy.

Following the festivals, the focus will shift to the critics’ awards in the late fall, which will be crucial for building consensus around specific films and performances. Finally, the guild awards from the DGA, PGA, and SAG in the new year will serve as the most reliable precursors for predicting the eventual Oscar winners. The race is on, and while the early favorites have made their mark, the long and unpredictable road to Oscar night has only just begun.